3. Residential Land Need

Table R-5 quantifies residential land need. The table estimates need based upon both the trends developed since 1970, modified to reflect the revised 1995 population and housing projections, and a possible higher density alternative scenario which anticipates a greater need for office worker/assembly line worker housing that would be associated with a small amount of high technology industrial development or increased office employment.

TABLE R-5
URBAN AREA RESIDENTIAL LAND NEED 1995-2015

Source: Sutter County Community Services Department

*Single-family at 4.5 du/ac, multiple-family at 14 du/ac.
**Single-family at 5.0 du/ac, multiple-family at 18 du/ac.

Sutter County will need to have developed an additional 733 acres of unincorporated land for residential uses between 1995 and 2015 to meet projected housing need.

It appears that the Yuba City Urban Area will require approximately 2,103 acres of land to meet residential needs for the period 1995 to 2015, of which, 589 acres will be in the unincorporated area. A survey of the Yuba City Urban Area land was completed in early 1991. It revealed 1,261 acres of non-developed, vacant land in the unincorporated area designated for single-family and multi-family uses in the Yuba City Urban Area (1,096 acres of low density residential land and 165 acres of medium density residential land). A discussion of these lands is contained in Section 11 (b)(1), Land Use Controls.

The survey identified sufficient building sites that were immediately available for over 1,800 single-family residences and almost 1,200 multiple-family residences in the Urban Area, excluding Tierra Buena. These sites already have an appropriate General Plan designation for development and most have appropriate zoning. Most require relatively little or no water and/or sanitary sewer line extension for development.

Another 422 units of single-family residences were identified in the unincorporated Tierra Buena Area. These units have been approved as of January 1990, on tentative subdivision maps for development on a public water system and individual septic systems.

As of August 1990, those projects in the Yuba City Urban Area which have received at least preliminary approval are summarized in Table R-6. Based upon projected need, if all those units were built, sufficient housing would be available to meet the unincorporated Yuba City Urban Area need for at least up to the year 2005.

TABLE R-6
PRELIMINARY APPROVED DWELLINGS
WITHIN URBAN AREA AUGUST, 1990

Source: Sutter County Community Services Department

Outside of the Yuba City Urban Area the remaining County unincorporated area will have a housing need for 932 units from 1995 to 2015. Some of these units will be in the existing rural communities - Sutter, Rio Oso, Meridian, Nicolaus, and East Nicolaus - but most of these units will be developed on existing parcels as either primary housing farm labor housing or family member housing in the rural, agricultural areas of the County.

4. Affordability

From 1970 to 1989, the median value of an owner-occupied home in California increased from $23,100 to $175,000, an increase of 658% (see Table R-7 for Yuba City and Sutter County median home values). The majority of this rapid increase occurred during the decade of the 1970's. During this same period, gross monthly median rental costs went up 348%, from $126 to $565. During this same period, interest rates went from 6% in 1970 to 12% plus in 1980 and 10.5% in 1990. The combination of higher housing values and rental costs, along with increased interest rates, have significantly increased housing costs for both ownership and rental units alike.

TABLE R-7
HOUSING VALUE, GROSS RENT, AND HOUSEHOLD INCOME
1970 TO 1989, STATE OF CALIFORNIA

Source: U.S. Census and Department of Housing and Community Development

The 1982 California Housing Plan states that there are 2,194,000 lower-income households in California which have monthly housing costs that exceed 25% of the total monthly household income. Of these, 635,000 are ownership households and 1,559,000 are renter households. These households represent approximately one-quarter of all California households. By 1989, these totals had increased to over 3,660,000 households paying more than 25% of monthly income for housing costs (1,340,000 owner and 2,320,000 renter households). Although the gross numbers are higher, the State 1989 totals show a slight improvement over the 1980 totals in that only 22% of all households in 1989 exceeded the 25% figure.

TABLE R-8
LOW-INCOME HOUSEHOLDS PAYING MORE THAN
25% OR 30% OF GROSS INCOME FOR HOUSING

Source: Estimated from 1980 and 1990 Census

Until 1983, the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) used the 25% threshold as its standard to determine overpaying. In 1983, the overpaying threshold was increased to 30%. Table R-8 summarizes the number of low-income households in the Yuba City Urban Area and Sutter County where monthly housing costs exceed either 25% or 30% of household income in 1980.

Households needing assistance are generally defined as those low-income households (less than 80% of the area's median income level) that are overpaying. Based upon HUD's revised 30% threshold level for overpaying, there are 2,213 households in the Yuba City Urban Area that are in need of assistance in 1980.

Table R-9 contains data obtained from the Yuba/Sutter Multiple Listing Service on residential real estate sales in Sutter County in 1979, from September 1, 1982 to December 31, 1983 and from January 1, 1984 to December 31, 1985. The Multiple Listing Service lists approximately 80% of all sales in the County. This information is provided to indicate an approximate trend for area housing costs.

Based upon data from the Mortgage Credit Certificate Program, the median sales price of new homes and existing homes in Sutter County in 1989 was $136,600 and $106,200, respectively. Based upon these values, the estimated median home value in the area in 1989 was $107,000. By February 1991, these values had increased to $176,500 for new housing and $144,500 for existing housing with the median value for all housing at $145,600. This represents a 36.1 percent increase in the median sale price of all housing.

Additionally, based upon a December 1990 survey of new construction in the Yuba City Urban Area, the lowest price identified for a 1,350 square foot, three-bedroom, two-bath residence was $110,000. The December period reflects a "slow" real estate market. During the previous summer, the same dwelling would have been priced approximately $10,000 to $12,000 higher.

Tables R-10, R-11 and R-12 contain 1990 Census data on the distribution of dwelling unit ownership value and rental cost and very low, low, median and moderate household payment ceilings for gross monthly housing costs, not exceeding the overpaying threshold. Together these tables indicate the general availability of housing to each income group.

It is important to note that a great many of the units listed in Table R-13 as being affordable to specific income groups are actually occupied by people of higher income levels. Therefore, the shortfall noted in Table R-13 of low and moderate income households to housing units, should be considered an absolute minimum shortfall. A more realistic gauge of the actual need of assistance is found in Table R-8 which summarizes overpaying.

TABLE R-9
PRICE DISTRIBUTION OF 1979 HOME SALES - SUTTER COUNTY

Source: Multiple Listing Service

PRICE DISTRIBUTION OF HOME SALES - SEPTEMBER, 1982 TO DECEMBER, 1983

Source: Multiple Listing Service

TABLE R-9 CON'T.
PRICE DISTRIBUTION OF HOME SALES - JANUARY, 1984 TO DECEMBER, 1985

Source: Multiple Listing Service

TABLE R-10
DISTRIBUTION OF OWNER-OCCUPIED UNIT VALUE

Source: 1990 Census

TABLE R-11
MONTHLY RENTAL COSTS

Source: Yuba City Apartment Survey 1990

Source: 1990 Census

TABLE R-12
FAMILY CEILING LIMITS BY INCOME GROUP

* Income ceilings based upon median household income of Sutter County.
** Assumes 30% of monthly income for housing cost.
*** Assumes 20% down payment at 10.50% annual interest.

Source: Based on HUD's 1990 Median Household Income Estimates.

TABLE R-13
AFFORDABLE HOUSING BY INCOME GROUPINGS*

* Existing households were estimated using 1980 Census distribution applied to the total 1990 Census households.

Source: 1980 and 1990 Census

As can be seen from the preceding data, housing costs have increased at a dramatic pace over the last two decades. These increases have created a housing affordability crisis where it becomes increasingly more difficult for lower income households to find and afford safe and sanitary housing.

In response to the affordability issue, by 1990 over 55 California communities had adopted what are referred to as "inclusionary housing programs". Inclusionary housing programs are provisions by the local community that requires the normal housing market to provide a balance of housing opportunities for all economic levels of the community. Generally, these programs include various options that require a minimum percentage of housing units developed and set aside for low or moderate-income households, in-lieu fees for the development of low or moderate-income housing units, dedication of land for the development of low and moderate-income housing units, payments from commercial and industrial developers into a housing trust funds for the development of low and moderate-income housing units, etc.